A pet peeve of mine has always been Red
Zone % as a way of commentators of gauging a team's effectiveness in the Red
Zone. The problem with Red Zone % is
that it places equal value on scoring either a TD or a FG. Now I could be wrong, but the last time I
checked, TDs were worth more than FGs.
Red Zone Average (RZA) is a better metric because it places the
appropriate value on what the offense did (TD = 7 pts, FG = 3 pts, no score = 0
points) and it is computed by taking the total points scored in the Red Zone divided
by the number of trips to the Red Zone.
Red Zone Average (RZA) = Total Points in Red Zone
# of Chances in Red Zone
Let's look at a simple example below:
Team
|
Chances
|
TDs
|
FGs
|
Total Points
|
RZA
|
Scores
|
Chances
|
Red Zone %
|
Team 1
|
10
|
7
|
0
|
49
|
4.90
|
7
|
10
|
70.0
|
Team 2
|
10
|
0
|
9
|
27
|
2.70
|
9
|
10
|
90.0
|
The TV announcers will tell you that
Team 2 is leading the league in Red Zone %, but that is misleading as to their
effectiveness in this critical area. Both
teams had the same number of Red Zone trips so it is easy to compare and see
that Team 1 scored nearly twice as many points as Team 2. Red Zone Average (RZA) accurately represents the
reality that Team 1 is much more effective in the Red Zone since they average
2.2 points more per Red Zone trip than Team 2.
Below are the Pac-10 Red Zone stats from
2007 and 2008. Sonny Dykes was the OC at
Arizona during this time. He said that
they were only 9th in the Pac-10 in the 2007 season using Red Zone %. Actually, if you look at Red Zone Average, they
were actually dead last. The next year Coach
Dykes produced an amazing turnaround and went from worst to first in Red Zone
Average (not to mention improving 3rd Down % from 8th to 1st as well)! The Arizona numbers are even more remarkable
if you consider that they took a knee at the end of the game three times in the
Red Zone that year (excluding those three possessions would have bumped their
RZA up to 6.05). Not shown in the table
are other stats showing the specific number of run and pass TDs and the reason
for not scoring: missed FG, Ints, Fumbles, Loss of Downs, or Other.
2007 RZA (Red Zone Average) for Pac-10 Conference
|
||||||||||
Team
|
Chances
|
TDs
|
FGs
|
Total Points
|
RZA
|
RZA Rank
|
Scores
|
Chances
|
Red Zone %
|
Red Zone % Rank
|
USC
|
66
|
44
|
13
|
347
|
5.26
|
1
|
57
|
66
|
86.4
|
3
|
Oregon
|
59
|
38
|
13
|
305
|
5.17
|
2
|
51
|
59
|
86.4
|
2
|
Arizona St.
|
53
|
31
|
16
|
265
|
5.00
|
3
|
47
|
53
|
88.7
|
1
|
Washington
|
47
|
29
|
10
|
233
|
4.96
|
4
|
39
|
47
|
83.0
|
4
|
Cal
|
51
|
32
|
8
|
248
|
4.86
|
5
|
40
|
51
|
78.4
|
6
|
Oregon St.
|
58
|
33
|
12
|
267
|
4.60
|
6
|
45
|
58
|
77.6
|
7
|
Washington St.
|
47
|
27
|
9
|
216
|
4.60
|
6
|
36
|
47
|
76.6
|
8
|
UCLA
|
42
|
18
|
16
|
174
|
4.14
|
8
|
34
|
42
|
81.0
|
5
|
Stanford
|
37
|
18
|
9
|
153
|
4.14
|
8
|
27
|
37
|
73.0
|
10
|
Arizona
|
42
|
18
|
13
|
165
|
3.93
|
10
|
31
|
42
|
73.8
|
9
|
2008 RZA (Red Zone Average) for Pac-10 Conference
|
||||||||||
Team
|
Chances
|
TDs
|
FGs
|
Total Points
|
RZA
|
RZA Rank
|
Scores
|
Chances
|
Red Zone %
|
Red Zone % Rank
|
Arizona
|
60
|
45
|
10
|
345
|
5.75
|
1
|
55
|
60
|
91.7
|
1
|
Stanford
|
43
|
31
|
8
|
241
|
5.60
|
2
|
39
|
43
|
90.7
|
2
|
USC
|
63
|
45
|
8
|
339
|
5.38
|
3
|
53
|
63
|
84.1
|
4
|
Oregon
|
68
|
42
|
14
|
336
|
4.94
|
4
|
56
|
68
|
82.4
|
6
|
Oregon St.
|
61
|
37
|
13
|
298
|
4.89
|
5
|
50
|
61
|
82.0
|
8
|
Cal
|
51
|
30
|
12
|
246
|
4.82
|
6
|
42
|
51
|
82.4
|
7
|
Washington St.
|
31
|
16
|
8
|
136
|
4.39
|
7
|
24
|
31
|
77.4
|
9
|
UCLA
|
41
|
19
|
15
|
178
|
4.34
|
8
|
34
|
41
|
82.9
|
5
|
Arizona St.
|
41
|
17
|
18
|
173
|
4.22
|
9
|
35
|
41
|
85.4
|
3
|
Washington St.
|
31
|
16
|
6
|
130
|
4.19
|
10
|
22
|
31
|
71.0
|
10
|
It has been said that there are three
kind of lies: lies, d--- lies, and statistics.
A good example of the deceptiveness of poor statistics like Red Zone %
is with the 2008 Arizona St. team that finished 3rd in traditional Red Zone
%. They finished second to last using
Red Zone Average, with the main reason being that they were the only team in
the Pac-10 to score less TDs than FGs.
Coach Dykes remarked that Arizona lost a
lot of close games in 2007, with Red Zone Average (along with 3rd Down %) being
the two main reasons. These kind of
numbers are good to look at this time of year to help determine what the focus
of your off-season studies should be.
Dykes saw the problem and he was able to fix it by focusing on getting
the ball to his one or two best players, allowing the QB to check to the best
play (or calling a run-pass option), and by using window-dressing to run their
best plays out of different formations.
He also followed the rule of thumb that says "you get what you
emphasize," and having a Red Zone period every day (with an extra long
period on Thursday).
Really love this post never thought of this way to calculate efficiency.
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