NCAA Analytics - Adjusted Yards Per Play - 10/11/19

A book called, Football by the Numbers, 1986, said that Total Offense and Total Defense were not the best statistics for determining which Offense or Defense was actually the best. The authors, George Ignatin and Allen Berra, determined that an Interception was worth -50 yards in field position and a Fumble was worth -40 yards (Int's are worth more since they are usually returned back for more yards than Fumbles). They took Total Offense/Defense minus the 50 yards for each Interception and minus 40 yards for each Fumble, and then divided that by the Number of Plays. This gave the value of Adjusted Yards per Play.

A Better Way to Measure Red Zone Effectiveness - Red Zone Average (RZA)

A pet peeve of mine has always been Red Zone % as a way of commentators of gauging a team's effectiveness in the Red Zone.  The problem with Red Zone % is that it places equal value on scoring either a TD or a FG.  Now I could be wrong, but the last time I checked, TDs were worth more than FGs.  Red Zone Average (RZA) is a better metric because it places the appropriate value on what the offense did (TD = 7 pts, FG = 3 pts, no score = 0 points) and it is computed by taking the total points scored in the Red Zone divided by the number of trips to the Red Zone.

Red Zone Average (RZA)  =  Total Points in Red Zone

                                                     # of Chances in Red Zone

Let's look at a simple example below:

Team	Chances	TDs	FGs	Total Points	RZA	Scores	Chances	Red Zone %
Team 1	10	7	0	49	4.90	7	10	70.0
Team 2	10	0	9	27	2.70	9	10	90.0