NCAA Analytics - Adjusted Yards Per Play - 10/11/19

A book called, Football by the Numbers, 1986, said that Total Offense and Total Defense were not the best statistics for determining which Offense or Defense was actually the best. The authors, George Ignatin and Allen Berra, determined that an Interception was worth -50 yards in field position and a Fumble was worth -40 yards (Int's are worth more since they are usually returned back for more yards than Fumbles). They took Total Offense/Defense minus the 50 yards for each Interception and minus 40 yards for each Fumble, and then divided that by the Number of Plays. This gave the value of Adjusted Yards per Play.

Adjusted Yards Per Play rewards efficiency as well as being able to protect the ball on Offense and take it away on Defense.  I posted the 2018 rankings here.  Here are the 2019 rankings so far as of 10/11/19, starting with Adjusted Offense.  Oklahoma was #1 last year with 8.06 adjusted yards per play and they have increased that to 9.38, which is insane.  

You can scroll down the spreadsheets and click on the tabs.  The Underrated and Overrated tabs are fun to look at.

ADJUSTED OFFENSE

Here is Adjusted Defense with Wisconsin going from #52 at 4.40 adjusted yards per play in 2018 down to the #1 spot at only 1.22.  Last year's top Defense was Miami with 2.72 adjusted yards per play, so Wisconsin and DC Jim Leonhard are really doing an amazing job so far in 2019.

ADJUSTED DEFENSE

Ohio State is Top 5 in both Offense and Defense and is right now arguably the best team in the country.  2018 National Champion Clemson was similarly dominant at 6th in Offense and 5th in Defense but they look a bit overrated so far this year as they are 21st in Offense and 8th in Defense.  There is still a lot of football to be played and it will be interesting to see what happens as teams start getting into the meat of their schedule.  I will post these again later in a few weeks.